It’s a hot summer afternoon in Coleman, Texas. A family is relaxing on the porch, playing dominoes and enjoying the fan.

The father-in-law says, “Let’s drive to Abilene for dinner.”

Nobody really wants to go. It’s 53 miles away in 104°F heat, in a car without air conditioning.

But nobody speaks up.

The wife says, “Sounds good to me.”

The husband, not wanting to disappoint, says, “Sure, I’m in.”

The mother-in-law agrees.

Four hours later, they return from a miserable journey. Hot, tired, and having eaten terrible food.

Then someone admits: “I didn’t really want to go.”

“Neither did I,” says another.

“I only went because you all seemed to want to.”

Nobody wanted to go to Abilene. But they all agreed to go anyway.

What Is the Abilene Paradox?

The Abilene Paradox occurs when a group collectively decides on a course of action that none of them individually want, because each person mistakenly believes everyone else wants it.

It’s the opposite of groupthink. In groupthink, people suppress dissent to maintain harmony. In the Abilene Paradox, there is no dissent to suppress—everyone is secretly on the same side.

Management expert Jerry B. Harvey first described this phenomenon in 1974, naming it after his family’s ill-fated trip to Abilene.

Why It Happens

The Abilene Paradox arises from:

1. Negative Action Bias

People are more afraid of speaking up (action) than going along (inaction), even when going along is worse.

2. Assumed Agreement

“Everyone else seems fine with this, so I must be the only one with doubts.”

3. Fear of Conflict

“If I object, I’ll cause tension or seem difficult.”

4. Pluralistic Ignorance

Everyone privately rejects an idea, but each believes they’re alone in their rejection.

5. Separation of Action and Desire

People divorce “what I want” from “what I think the group wants,” prioritizing the latter.

Classic Examples

1. The Bay of Pigs Invasion (1961) President Kennedy’s advisors privately thought the plan was terrible, but assumed others supported it. Kennedy later said, “How could we have been so stupid?”

2. The Challenger Disaster (1986) Engineers had concerns about the O-rings in cold weather. But in meetings, they stayed quiet, assuming leadership wanted to proceed. Seven astronauts died.

3. The Iraq War (2003) Many officials privately doubted the WMD intelligence, but assumed others were more certain. Post-war investigations found widespread private skepticism that was never voiced.

4. Corporate Initiatives Nobody Wanted Countless company projects everyone privately knows will fail, but nobody stops.

In Software Engineering

The Abilene Paradox is rampant in tech organizations:

Bad Technology Choices

Adopting a Trendy Framework

Team Lead: "Should we use [HypeFramework]?"
Dev 1: "Sure, sounds good." (Thinking: I don't want to seem resistant to change)
Dev 2: "I'm in." (Thinking: Everyone else seems excited)
Dev 3: "Let's do it." (Thinking: I'll look outdated if I object)

Reality: Nobody actually wanted it, they just didn't want to be the naysayer.

Microservices Adoption

Everyone nods along to splitting a small monolith into dozens of microservices.
Nobody wanted the operational complexity.
But each person thought the others wanted "modern architecture."

Result: Operational nightmare nobody wanted.

Terrible Meetings

The Daily Standup

Manager: "Should we keep doing daily standups?"
Team: *silence* (Everyone hates them but assumes others find them valuable)
Manager: "Great, we'll continue."

Nobody wanted daily standups. But they're still happening.

All-Hands Meetings

"Should we keep the 2-hour Friday all-hands?"
Everyone secretly dreads it.
Everyone assumes others value it.
It continues indefinitely.

Cargo Cult Practices

Mandatory Code Reviews on Trivial Changes

Team implements "all PRs require 2 approvals" rule.
Developers find it slows down small fixes.
But nobody objects, assuming others want rigor.

Result: Team waits days for approval on one-line changes.

Excessive Documentation

"We should document every function."
Everyone knows nobody reads the docs.
But nobody wants to seem anti-documentation.

Result: Time wasted writing docs nobody uses.

Doomed Projects

The Rewrite That Nobody Wanted

CTO: "Maybe we should rewrite the core system?"
Devs: "Sure, could be good." (Thinking: I don't want to maintain legacy code)
Product: "Okay." (Thinking: Devs seem excited)
Management: "Approved." (Thinking: Must be necessary)

Reality: Everyone had concerns. Nobody spoke up.
The rewrite fails after 18 months.

Real-World Tech Examples

Yahoo and Microsoft Merger Talks (2008)

Internal discussions revealed many executives privately opposed the merger, but assumed others supported it. The deal almost went through despite widespread internal opposition.

The Open Office Plan

Study after study shows developers hate open offices and are less productive in them.

Yet companies keep building them because:

  • Executives assume employees want “collaboration”
  • Employees assume management has good reasons
  • Nobody speaks up

Result: Misery for all, productivity for none.

Agile Rituals Run Amok

Teams adopt Scrum with all its ceremonies, even when half the team thinks it’s overkill.

Why? Each person assumes others value the structure.

Result: Hours spent in ceremonies nobody finds useful.

How to Avoid the Abilene Paradox

1. Encourage Dissent

Create psychological safety for objections:

  • “What are the reasons NOT to do this?”
  • “Who has concerns? Seriously, speak up.”
  • “Let’s do a round-robin: everyone says their real opinion.”

2. Anonymous Feedback

Use secret ballots or anonymous surveys for major decisions:

  • “Vote YES if you genuinely want this, NO if you have serious doubts”
  • Reveals true sentiment without social pressure

3. Assign a Devil’s Advocate

Designate someone to argue against the proposal:

  • Removes the social cost of being “the difficult one”
  • Legitimizes skepticism

4. Check Your Assumptions

Before agreeing, ask yourself:

  • “Do I actually want this, or am I assuming others do?”
  • “Would I suggest this if nobody else had?”

5. Speak First, Not Last

If you have doubts, voice them early:

  • Don’t wait to see if others object first
  • Your hesitation might give others permission to speak up

6. The Pre-Mortem

Before starting a project:

  • “Imagine this fails. Why did it fail?”
  • Forces people to voice concerns as hypothetical analysis, not personal objection

7. Confirm True Agreement

Don’t accept passive agreement:

  • ❌ “Any objections? [silence] Great!”
  • ✅ “I need each person to explicitly say if they support this and why.”

The Warning Signs

You might be in an Abilene Paradox if:

  • ✅ Nobody seems enthusiastic, just “okay with it”
  • ✅ Decisions happen through passive agreement, not active support
  • ✅ People make jokes or sarcastic comments about the plan
  • ✅ There’s a sense of inevitability: “Well, we’re doing this”
  • ✅ After decisions, people privately express doubts they never voiced

The Programmer’s Responsibility

As engineers, we have a professional obligation to speak up:

“I don’t think this is a good idea.”

That sentence can save months of wasted work.

But we stay silent because:

  • We don’t want to seem negative
  • We assume we’re missing something others understand
  • We don’t want to slow down the team
  • We think someone else will object if it’s really bad

Don’t wait for someone else to be the dissenter.

If you have genuine concerns, voice them. You might discover everyone shares your doubts.

The Deeper Pattern

The Abilene Paradox reveals a fundamental flaw in human communication:

We optimize for short-term harmony at the cost of long-term outcomes.

It’s easier to go along with a bad decision than to risk immediate social discomfort.

But the result is collective suffering nobody wanted.

What Should the Family Have Done?

Back on that porch in Coleman, Texas, if just one person had said:

“Actually, I’m fine staying here. Do you all really want to go?”

The others would have confessed they didn’t want to go either.

The trip would have been cancelled. Everyone would have been happier.

One voice could have saved the whole group from a miserable experience.

Key Takeaways

  • ✅ Groups can collectively choose what nobody individually wants
  • ✅ Silence doesn’t mean agreement—check assumptions
  • ✅ Create space for dissent, not just consent
  • ✅ Speak up if you have doubts—others might share them
  • ✅ Active agreement is different from passive compliance

The next time your team is about to embark on a journey nobody really wants, be the person who asks:

“Do we actually want to go to Abilene, or are we just being polite?”

You might discover that everyone was secretly hoping someone else would speak up.

Don’t take the trip to Abilene.