Two companies. Same revenue. $10M ARR.

Company A - Traditional SaaS:

  • 100 customers paying $100K/year
  • Churn: 5% annually
  • Growth: 20% YoY

Valuation: $50M (5x revenue)

Company B - SaaS with Expansion:

  • 100 customers started at $50K/year
  • Churn: 5% annually (same as Company A)
  • But… existing customers now paying average $120K
  • Net Revenue Retention: 120%
  • Growth: 35% YoY

Valuation: $200M (20x revenue)

Same starting point. Same number of customers. Same churn rate.

But Company B worth 4x more.

Why?

Company B understands its industry-specific metrics:

  • Expansion MRR
  • Net Revenue Retention (NRR)
  • Negative churn
  • Quick Ratio

Company A only tracks basic metrics:

  • Total revenue
  • Customer count
  • Churn rate

This is why industry context matters.

A 70% gross margin is:

  • ✅ Amazing for e-commerce
  • ⚠️ Concerning for SaaS
  • ❌ Terrible for pure software

A 5% monthly churn is:

  • ✅ Excellent for SMB SaaS
  • ⚠️ Acceptable for consumer subscription
  • ❌ Catastrophic for enterprise SaaS

Let’s learn the metrics that matter most for each business model.


Part 1: Why Industry Context Changes Everything

Same metric, different meaning:

Example: 50% Growth Rate

For a startup (Year 1):

  • $0 → $1M = 50% monthly growth
  • Verdict: Too slow, not venture-scale

For scale-up (Year 5):

  • $20M → $30M = 50% annual growth
  • Verdict: Excellent, ready for IPO

For mature company (Year 15):

  • $500M → $750M = 50% growth
  • Verdict: Extraordinary, market-dominating

Example: 30% Gross Margin

Industry 30% Gross Margin Verdict
SaaS 30% ❌ Broken (should be 70-90%)
E-commerce 30% ✅ Solid (typical range)
Marketplace 30% ⚠️ Depends on take rate model
Retail 30% ✅ Good (typical 20-40%)

This is why you need industry-specific benchmarks.


Part 2: SaaS Metrics Bible

SaaS has the most developed metric frameworks because:

  1. Predictable recurring revenue
  2. Clear cohort behavior
  3. Expansion opportunities
  4. Long-term value creation

1. Quick Ratio - The Health Score

Quick Ratio measures how fast you’re growing vs. churning.

$$ \text{Quick Ratio} = \frac{\text{New MRR} + \text{Expansion MRR}}{\text{Churned MRR} + \text{Contraction MRR}} $$

Example:

Month: January

  • New MRR: $50K (new customers)
  • Expansion MRR: $20K (upsells, add-ons)
  • Churned MRR: $15K (lost customers)
  • Contraction MRR: $5K (downgrades)

$$ \text{Quick Ratio} = \frac{$50K + $20K}{$15K + $5K} = \frac{$70K}{$20K} = 3.5 $$

What it means:

  • For every $1 you lose, you gain $3.50
  • Rule of Thumb:
    • < 1: Losing more than gaining (crisis)
    • 1-2: Growing but struggling
    • 2-4: Healthy growth
    • > 4: Excellent growth efficiency

Why Quick Ratio > Traditional Growth Rate:

Traditional view:

  • Company A: +$50K MRR (10% growth)
  • Company B: +$50K MRR (10% growth)
  • Look the same!

Quick Ratio view:

Company A:

  • New: $40K, Expansion: $20K, Churn: $10K
  • Quick Ratio: 6.0 (healthy!)

Company B:

  • New: $55K, Expansion: $5K, Churn: $10K
  • Quick Ratio: 6.0 (but relying on new customers only)

Company C:

  • New: $80K, Expansion: $5K, Churn: $35K
  • Quick Ratio: 2.4 (churn problem!)

All have same net growth, but health is very different.

%%{init: {'theme':'dark', 'themeVariables': {'primaryTextColor':'#fff','secondaryTextColor':'#fff','tertiaryTextColor':'#fff','textColor':'#fff','nodeTextColor':'#fff'}}}%% graph LR A["Quick Ratio < 1
❌ Crisis"] --> B["Quick Ratio 1-2
⚠️ Struggling"] B --> C["Quick Ratio 2-4
✅ Healthy"] C --> D["Quick Ratio > 4
🚀 Excellent"] style A fill:#ff6b6b style B fill:#ffd43b style C fill:#51cf66 style D fill:#4dabf7

2. Net Revenue Retention (NRR) - The Gold Standard

NRR measures revenue retention + expansion from existing customers.

$$ \text{NRR} = \frac{\text{Starting MRR} + \text{Expansion MRR} - \text{Churned MRR} - \text{Contraction MRR}}{\text{Starting MRR}} \times 100% $$

Example: January Cohort

Starting MRR (January): $100,000

By next January (12 months later):

  • Expansion MRR: $20,000 (upsells)
  • Churned MRR: $10,000 (lost customers)
  • Contraction MRR: $5,000 (downgrades)

$$ \text{NRR} = \frac{$100K + $20K - $10K - $5K}{$100K} \times 100% = 105% $$

Interpretation:

  • 100% NRR: Breaking even (churn = expansion)
  • > 100% NRR: Negative churn (expansion > churn) 🚀
  • < 100% NRR: Losing revenue from cohort

Benchmarks by company type:

Company Type Typical NRR Great NRR
Enterprise SaaS 110-120% > 120%
Mid-market SaaS 100-110% > 115%
SMB SaaS 80-90% > 100%

Real examples:

  • Snowflake: 158% NRR (incredible!)
  • Datadog: 130% NRR
  • Slack (at IPO): 143% NRR
  • Zoom: 140% NRR

Why NRR > 100% is magical:

Scenario: 110% NRR, 0% new customer growth

Year Starting MRR NRR Ending MRR Growth
1 $1M 110% $1.1M +10%
2 $1.1M 110% $1.21M +10%
3 $1.21M 110% $1.33M +10%
4 $1.33M 110% $1.46M +10%
5 $1.46M 110% $1.61M +10%

You grow 10% annually without acquiring a single new customer!

This is why investors love high NRR:

  • Proves product value (customers expand)
  • Reduces dependency on new sales
  • Compounds over time
  • More predictable than new bookings

3. Gross Revenue Retention (GRR) - The Floor

GRR measures retention WITHOUT expansion.

$$ \text{GRR} = \frac{\text{Starting MRR} - \text{Churned MRR} - \text{Contraction MRR}}{\text{Starting MRR}} \times 100% $$

Using same example:

$$ \text{GRR} = \frac{$100K - $10K - $5K}{$100K} \times 100% = 85% $$

Why GRR matters:

  • Shows product stickiness independent of upsells
  • Can’t hide churn behind expansion
  • Floor for retention

Benchmarks:

Customer Segment Target GRR
Enterprise > 95%
Mid-market > 90%
SMB > 80%

Relationship: NRR vs GRR

$$ \text{NRR} = \text{GRR} + \text{Expansion Rate} $$

Example scenarios:

Scenario GRR Expansion NRR Assessment
A 95% 15% 110% ✅ Excellent
B 75% 35% 110% ⚠️ High churn masked
C 90% 5% 95% ⚠️ Low expansion
D 98% 20% 118% 🚀 Amazing

Scenario B is a red flag:

  • Same NRR as Scenario A
  • But losing 25% of customers annually
  • Heavy reliance on upsells to existing customers
  • What happens when expansion saturates?

4. Logo Retention vs Revenue Retention

Two different retention measures:

Logo Retention: $$ \text{Logo Retention} = \frac{\text{Customers at End}}{\text{Customers at Start}} \times 100% $$

Revenue Retention (GRR): $$ \text{Revenue Retention} = \frac{\text{Revenue Retained}}{\text{Starting Revenue}} \times 100% $$

These can diverge:

Example: Enterprise SaaS

  • Start: 100 customers, $1M MRR
  • End: 90 customers, $1.1M MRR
  • Logo retention: 90%
  • Revenue retention: 110%

Why?

  • Lost 10 small customers ($50K total)
  • Remaining 90 expanded by $150K
  • Result: Revenue up despite losing customers

When to focus on each:

Metric When to Prioritize
Logo Retention SMB, volume play, network effects
Revenue Retention Enterprise, high ACV, expansion model

5. Expansion MRR - The Growth Engine

Types of expansion:

  1. Upsell: Higher tier plan
  2. Cross-sell: Additional products
  3. Seats: More users
  4. Usage: Consumption-based growth

Expansion MRR calculation:

$$ \text{Expansion MRR %} = \frac{\text{Expansion MRR}}{\text{Starting MRR}} \times 100% $$

Example breakdown:

Month Starting MRR Expansion Expansion %
Jan $1M $50K 5%
Feb $1.05M $60K 5.7%
Mar $1.11M $70K 6.3%

Target: 2-3% monthly expansion MRR

Real company examples:

Company Primary Expansion Driver
Slack Seats (team growth)
Snowflake Usage (data warehouse compute)
Zendesk Cross-sell (multiple products)
Datadog Usage + seats (infrastructure monitoring)

6. CAC Payback Period - Speed to Profitability

$$ \text{CAC Payback (months)} = \frac{\text{CAC}}{\text{Monthly Revenue per Customer} \times \text{Gross Margin %}} $$

Example:

  • CAC: $12,000
  • Monthly ARPU: $1,000
  • Gross margin: 80%

$$ \text{Payback} = \frac{$12,000}{$1,000 \times 0.80} = 15 \text{ months} $$

Benchmarks:

CAC Payback Assessment
< 12 months Excellent (efficient growth)
12-18 months Good (acceptable)
18-24 months Fair (needs improvement)
> 24 months Poor (unsustainable)

Why it matters:

  • Cash flow impact
  • Risk exposure (customers can churn before payback)
  • Growth efficiency

7. Magic Number - Sales Efficiency

Magic Number measures sales & marketing efficiency.

$$ \text{Magic Number} = \frac{\text{Net New ARR (current quarter)} \times 4}{\text{Sales & Marketing Spend (previous quarter)}} $$

Example:

  • Q1 S&M spend: $500K
  • Q2 net new ARR: $150K

$$ \text{Magic Number} = \frac{$150K \times 4}{$500K} = 1.2 $$

Interpretation:

  • < 0.5: Inefficient, slow growth
  • 0.5 - 0.75: Reasonable, optimize further
  • 0.75 - 1.0: Good efficiency
  • > 1.0: Excellent, scale aggressively

Decision framework:

Magic Number Action
< 0.5 Pause growth, fix unit economics
0.5 - 0.75 Cautious growth, improve conversion
0.75 - 1.0 Scale with confidence
> 1.0 Raise capital, grow fast

Part 3: E-commerce Playbook

E-commerce metrics focus on:

  1. Conversion efficiency
  2. Transaction economics
  3. Repeat behavior
  4. Customer lifetime patterns

1. Conversion Funnel - Every Step Matters

Typical e-commerce funnel:

%%{init: {'theme':'dark', 'themeVariables': {'primaryTextColor':'#fff','secondaryTextColor':'#fff','tertiaryTextColor':'#fff','textColor':'#fff','nodeTextColor':'#fff'}}}%% graph TD A["Website Visitors
100,000 (100%)"] --> B["Product Page Views
40,000 (40%)"] B --> C["Add to Cart
8,000 (8%)"] C --> D["Checkout Started
4,000 (4%)"] D --> E["Order Completed
2,400 (2.4%)"] F["Abandonment Points:"] --> G["60% leave before product"] F --> H["20% abandon in cart"] F --> I["40% abandon at checkout"] style A fill:#4dabf7 style E fill:#51cf66 style G fill:#ff6b6b style H fill:#ff6b6b style I fill:#ff6b6b

Calculate conversion at each stage:

$$ \text{Conversion Rate} = \frac{\text{Orders Completed}}{\text{Website Visitors}} \times 100% $$

$$ \text{Conversion} = \frac{2,400}{100,000} \times 100% = 2.4% $$

Benchmarks by industry:

Industry Average Conversion Rate
Fashion 2-3%
Electronics 2-3%
Food & Beverage 3-5%
Luxury 1-2%
Health & Beauty 3-4%

Micro-conversions matter:

Step Formula Benchmark
Product View Rate Views / Visits 30-50%
Add-to-Cart Rate Adds / Views 8-12%
Checkout Rate Checkouts / Adds 40-50%
Purchase Rate Orders / Checkouts 60-70%

2. Average Order Value (AOV) - Revenue per Transaction

$$ \text{AOV} = \frac{\text{Total Revenue}}{\text{Number of Orders}} $$

Example:

  • Revenue: $500,000
  • Orders: 10,000

$$ \text{AOV} = \frac{$500,000}{10,000} = $50 $$

Ways to increase AOV:

Tactic Typical Lift
Product bundling 10-20%
Free shipping threshold 15-25%
Cross-sell at checkout 5-10%
Volume discounts 8-15%
Upsell premium options 10-20%

AOV by channel:

Channel Typical AOV Difference
Mobile -20 to -30% vs desktop
Email +15 to +25% vs organic
Paid search -10 to +10% (varies)
Referral +20 to +40%

3. Cart Abandonment Rate - The Revenue Leak

$$ \text{Cart Abandonment Rate} = \frac{\text{Carts Created} - \text{Orders Completed}}{\text{Carts Created}} \times 100% $$

Example:

  • Carts created: 10,000
  • Orders completed: 3,000

$$ \text{Abandonment} = \frac{10,000 - 3,000}{10,000} \times 100% = 70% $$

Average cart abandonment: 70% across all industries

Top reasons for abandonment:

Reason % of Abandoners
Unexpected shipping costs 55%
Need to create account 34%
Complicated checkout 26%
Lack of trust/security 19%
Slow delivery 18%
No guest checkout 16%

Recovery tactics:

Tactic Typical Recovery Rate
Abandoned cart email 10-15%
Exit-intent popup 2-5%
Retargeting ads 5-10%
SMS reminder 8-12%

ROI of cart abandonment campaigns:

Example:

  • 10,000 abandoned carts/month
  • AOV: $100
  • Potential revenue: $1M
  • Recovery rate: 12% (with email campaign)
  • Recovered revenue: $120K/month
  • Campaign cost: $5K/month
  • Net gain: $115K/month

4. Customer Repeat Rate - Lifetime Value Indicator

$$ \text{Repeat Purchase Rate} = \frac{\text{Customers with 2+ Orders}}{\text{Total Customers}} \times 100% $$

Example:

  • Total customers: 50,000
  • Customers with 2+ orders: 15,000

$$ \text{Repeat Rate} = \frac{15,000}{50,000} \times 100% = 30% $$

Benchmarks by business type:

Business Type Typical Repeat Rate
Consumables 40-60%
Fashion 20-35%
Electronics 10-20%
Furniture 5-15%
Beauty/Personal Care 35-55%

Cohort repeat purchase analysis:

Month First Purchase 2nd Purchase 3rd Purchase 4th+ Purchase
0 100% - - -
1 - 25% - -
3 - 35% 15% -
6 - 40% 20% 10%
12 - 45% 25% 15%

Tracking by cohort reveals:

  • Repeat purchase velocity
  • Long-term retention patterns
  • When to intervene with campaigns

5. Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) by Channel

E-commerce CAC varies dramatically by channel:

Channel Typical CAC Notes
Organic search $20-50 Long-term investment
Paid search $30-80 Intent-based, high conversion
Social ads (Facebook/Instagram) $40-100 Broad reach, testing needed
TikTok ads $25-60 Younger demographic
Influencer marketing $50-150 Varies by influencer tier
Email (reactivation) $5-15 Existing audience
Referral $15-40 High quality, loyal
Affiliate $30-70 Performance-based

Blended CAC calculation:

$$ \text{Blended CAC} = \frac{\text{Total Marketing Spend}}{\text{New Customers Acquired}} $$

Example:

  • Google Ads: $20K → 400 customers (CAC: $50)
  • Facebook: $15K → 250 customers (CAC: $60)
  • Email: $2K → 200 customers (CAC: $10)
  • Total: $37K → 850 customers

$$ \text{Blended CAC} = \frac{$37,000}{850} = $43.50 $$

6. LTV:CAC Ratio for E-commerce

Target LTV:CAC ratio: 3:1 minimum

Example:

  • CAC: $50
  • AOV: $80
  • Gross margin: 40% ($32 profit per order)
  • Repeat purchase rate: 30%
  • Average customer orders: 2.5

$$ \text{LTV} = $32 \times 2.5 = $80 $$

$$ \text{LTV:CAC} = \frac{$80}{$50} = 1.6:1 $$

Verdict: Below 3:1, need improvement

Options to improve:

  1. Reduce CAC (better targeting)
  2. Increase AOV (bundling, upsells)
  3. Increase repeat rate (loyalty program)
  4. Improve margins (pricing, COGS)

Part 4: Marketplace Math

Marketplaces are unique:

  • Two-sided (supply AND demand)
  • Network effects
  • Take rate business model
  • Liquidity is critical

1. GMV vs Revenue - Know the Difference

GMV = Gross Merchandise Value

  • Total value of transactions
  • Before taking platform fee

Revenue = Platform’s cut

  • Take rate × GMV
  • Actual money to the platform

$$ \text{Revenue} = \text{GMV} \times \text{Take Rate} $$

Example: Uber ride

  • Ride fare (GMV): $20
  • Uber take rate: 25%
  • Uber revenue: $5
  • Driver payout: $15

Why GMV can be misleading:

Company A:

  • GMV: $100M
  • Take rate: 5%
  • Revenue: $5M

Company B:

  • GMV: $50M
  • Take rate: 20%
  • Revenue: $10M

Company B has half the GMV but double the revenue!

2. Take Rate - The Platform’s Cut

$$ \text{Take Rate} = \frac{\text{Platform Revenue}}{\text{GMV}} \times 100% $$

Benchmarks by marketplace type:

Marketplace Take Rate Notes
eBay 10-12% + listing fees
Etsy 6.5% + payment processing
Uber 20-25% Varies by market
Airbnb 14-16% Combined host + guest
Amazon (3P) 15% + fulfillment fees
DoorDash 15-30% Varies by restaurant deal
Upwork 5-20% Sliding scale
StockX 9.5-12% + authentication

What influences take rate:

Factor Impact on Take Rate
High competition Lower take rate
Value-added services Higher take rate
Network effects strong Higher take rate
Commoditized supply Lower take rate
High trust needed Higher take rate (for safety/verification)

Take rate optimization:

Initial: Low take rate to grow supply/demand

Growth: Gradually increase as network effects strengthen

Scale: Optimize take rate per segment

Example: Uber

  • Launch: 5% take rate (grow driver supply)
  • Growth: 15% take rate (balance supply/demand)
  • Scale: 20-25% (optimize by market, surge pricing)

3. Liquidity - The Marketplace Health Metric

Liquidity = Matching efficiency

$$ \text{Liquidity} = \frac{\text{Listings that Transacted in X Days}}{\text{Total Active Listings}} \times 100% $$

Example: Rental marketplace

  • Active listings: 10,000 properties
  • Properties rented in 30 days: 7,000

$$ \text{30-Day Liquidity} = \frac{7,000}{10,000} \times 100% = 70% $$

Benchmarks:

Marketplace Type Good Liquidity
Rideshare > 90% (matched in < 5 min)
Food delivery > 85% (matched in < 10 min)
Rental (Airbnb) > 60% (booked in 30 days)
E-commerce (eBay) > 40% (sold in 60 days)
Services (Upwork) > 50% (hired in 30 days)

Why liquidity matters:

High liquidity:

  • Buyers find what they want fast
  • Sellers transact quickly
  • Network effects strengthen
  • Retention improves

Low liquidity:

  • Buyers leave empty-handed
  • Sellers abandon platform
  • Negative spiral begins
%%{init: {'theme':'dark', 'themeVariables': {'primaryTextColor':'#fff','secondaryTextColor':'#fff','tertiaryTextColor':'#fff','textColor':'#fff','nodeTextColor':'#fff'}}}%% graph TD A[High Liquidity] --> B[Fast Matching] B --> C[Happy Buyers] B --> D[Happy Sellers] C --> E[More Demand] D --> F[More Supply] E --> A F --> A G[Low Liquidity] --> H[Slow Matching] H --> I[Frustrated Buyers] H --> J[Frustrated Sellers] I --> K[Less Demand] J --> L[Less Supply] K --> G L --> G style A fill:#51cf66 style G fill:#ff6b6b

4. Supply/Demand Ratio - The Balance

$$ \text{S/D Ratio} = \frac{\text{Active Supply Units}}{\text{Active Demand Units}} $$

Example: Rideshare in a city

  • Active drivers: 1,000
  • Riders requesting: 800

$$ \text{S/D Ratio} = \frac{1,000}{800} = 1.25 $$

Interpretation:

  • < 1: Supply constrained (prices high, wait times low)
  • = 1: Balanced
  • > 1: Demand constrained (prices low, wait times high)

Optimal S/D ratio varies:

Marketplace Optimal S/D Ratio Why
Rideshare 1.1 - 1.3 Slight oversupply = low wait times
Food delivery 1.2 - 1.5 Extra couriers = fast delivery
Rental (Airbnb) 2 - 4 More choice for buyers
Freelance 3 - 5 Competition keeps prices fair

Dynamic balancing:

  • Surge pricing (Uber): Increase demand-side price when S/D < 1
  • Incentives (DoorDash): Bonus for drivers when S/D < 1
  • Promotions (Airbnb): Discounts to stimulate demand when S/D > 4

5. Network Density - Geographic Liquidity

For location-based marketplaces:

$$ \text{Network Density} = \frac{\text{Active Supply Units}}{\text{Geographic Area}} $$

Example: Rideshare city zones

Zone Drivers Area (sq mi) Density Liquidity
Downtown 200 5 40/sq mi ✅ High
Suburbs 50 20 2.5/sq mi ⚠️ Medium
Rural 5 50 0.1/sq mi ❌ Low

Why density matters:

  • Affects wait times
  • Determines service quality
  • Influences unit economics

Uber’s strategy:

  1. Launch in dense downtown (easiest to achieve liquidity)
  2. Expand to suburbs (maintain quality)
  3. Skip rural areas (can’t achieve density)

6. Frequency and Engagement

$$ \text{Monthly Active Rate} = \frac{\text{Users Transacting This Month}}{\text{Total Users}} \times 100% $$

Benchmarks:

Marketplace Type Monthly Active Rate
Food delivery 40-60%
Rideshare 30-50%
E-commerce 15-30%
Travel/Rental 5-15%
Freelance 20-40%

High-frequency marketplaces (food delivery) have:

  • Lower CAC payback (faster usage)
  • Stronger habits
  • Better data for recommendations
  • More upsell opportunities

Low-frequency marketplaces (travel) have:

  • Longer CAC payback
  • Need great retention tactics
  • Rely on occasional high-value transactions

Part 5: Benchmarking Tables - What “Good” Looks Like

SaaS Benchmarks by Stage

Metric Early Stage Growth Stage Scale Stage
CAC Payback < 18 months < 12 months < 10 months
Magic Number > 0.5 > 0.75 > 1.0
NRR > 90% > 100% > 110%
GRR > 80% > 85% > 90%
Quick Ratio > 2 > 3 > 4
LTV:CAC > 2:1 > 3:1 > 4:1
Gross Margin > 60% > 70% > 75%

E-commerce Benchmarks by Business Model

Metric Consumables Fashion Electronics Luxury
Conversion Rate 3-5% 2-3% 2-3% 1-2%
AOV $50-100 $80-150 $200-500 $500+
Repeat Rate 40-60% 20-35% 10-20% 15-30%
Gross Margin 40-60% 45-65% 20-35% 50-70%
LTV:CAC > 3:1 > 2.5:1 > 2:1 > 3:1

Marketplace Benchmarks by Type

Metric Rideshare Food Delivery Rental Services
Take Rate 20-25% 15-30% 14-16% 10-20%
Liquidity > 90% > 85% > 60% > 50%
S/D Ratio 1.1-1.3 1.2-1.5 2-4 3-5
Monthly Active 30-50% 40-60% 5-15% 20-40%

Part 6: Your Metrics Dashboard by Stage

Pre-Revenue (Building Product)

Focus on:

  • ✅ User engagement (DAU/MAU)
  • ✅ Activation rate (% completing key action)
  • ✅ Feature usage depth
  • ❌ Don’t worry about: Revenue metrics yet

Example dashboard:

  • Signups per week: 500
  • Activation rate: 40%
  • Weekly active users: 200
  • Feature X usage: 60% of active users

Early Revenue ($0-1M ARR)

Focus on:

  • ✅ Unit economics (does one customer/transaction make money?)
  • ✅ CAC per channel
  • ✅ Basic LTV calculation
  • ✅ Gross margin
  • ❌ Don’t worry about: Efficiency ratios yet

Example dashboard:

  • Monthly revenue: $50K
  • Customers: 25
  • ARPU: $2K
  • CAC: $3K (6-month payback)
  • Gross margin: 70%

Growth Stage ($1-10M ARR)

Focus on:

  • ✅ CAC payback period
  • ✅ LTV:CAC ratio
  • ✅ Retention cohorts
  • ✅ Quick Ratio (SaaS) or Repeat Rate (E-commerce)
  • ✅ Burn rate and runway

Example dashboard:

  • ARR: $5M
  • Net new ARR: $150K/month
  • CAC payback: 14 months
  • LTV:CAC: 3.2:1
  • NRR: 105%
  • Burn: $200K/month
  • Runway: 18 months

Scale Stage ($10M+ ARR)

Focus on:

  • ✅ Efficiency metrics (Magic Number, Rule of 40)
  • ✅ Expansion revenue
  • ✅ Sales productivity
  • ✅ ROIC
  • ✅ Path to profitability

Example dashboard:

  • ARR: $50M
  • Growth rate: 40%
  • Operating margin: 0% (breakeven)
  • Rule of 40: 40% ✓
  • NRR: 115%
  • CAC payback: 10 months
  • Magic Number: 1.1

Part 7: Red Flags Checklist

🚨 Universal Red Flags (Any Business)

Red Flag What It Means Action
LTV < CAC Losing money on every customer Fix unit economics or pivot
Negative gross margin Core product unprofitable Increase prices or reduce COGS
Rising CAC, flat LTV Acquisition getting harder Product-market fit issue
Burn > revenue Spending more than earning Cut costs or raise capital
Runway < 6 months Running out of cash Emergency fundraise or cut to profitability

🚨 SaaS Red Flags

Red Flag What It Means
Quick Ratio < 1 Losing more than gaining (death spiral)
NRR < 90% Customers shrinking rapidly
GRR < 75% Churn crisis
CAC payback > 24 months Too long to break even
Magic Number < 0.5 Sales/marketing inefficient

🚨 E-commerce Red Flags

Red Flag What It Means
Repeat rate < 10% One-time purchase business
Conversion rate < 1% Website/funnel broken
Cart abandonment > 80% Checkout issues
CAC > 50% of AOV Unprofitable growth

🚨 Marketplace Red Flags

Red Flag What It Means
Liquidity < 30% Marketplace not working
S/D ratio < 0.5 or > 10 Severe imbalance
Take rate < 5% Not enough revenue per transaction
Active rate < 10% Users not coming back

Part 8: Key Takeaways - Industry-Specific Wisdom

For SaaS:

  1. NRR > 100% is the holy grail — grow without new customers
  2. Quick Ratio > 4 = healthy growth
  3. CAC payback < 12 months for efficient scaling
  4. GRR shows true retention — expansion can mask churn
  5. Magic Number > 0.75 before scaling sales

For E-commerce:

  1. Repeat rate = everything — one-time buyers are expensive
  2. Conversion rate improvements compound forever
  3. AOV increases are fastest path to profitability
  4. LTV:CAC > 3:1 minimum for sustainable growth
  5. Cart abandonment recovery is low-hanging fruit

For Marketplaces:

  1. GMV ≠ Revenue — take rate matters more
  2. Liquidity is life — match supply and demand fast
  3. Balance S/D ratio in every geographic market
  4. Network effects take time — expect J-curve
  5. Frequency drives value — high-frequency marketplaces have better economics

Universal Truth:

Context matters more than absolute numbers.

  • Know your industry benchmarks
  • Track the right metrics for your stage
  • Compare to similar businesses, not all businesses

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Full Series: Business Math Series


Your Action Plan

1. Identify your business model:

  • SaaS → Focus on retention, expansion, efficiency
  • E-commerce → Focus on conversion, AOV, repeat rate
  • Marketplace → Focus on liquidity, take rate, balance

2. Set up your dashboard:

  • 5-7 core metrics for your industry
  • Track weekly (not monthly)
  • Cohort-based when possible

3. Benchmark against your stage:

  • Early revenue → Unit economics
  • Growth → Efficiency ratios
  • Scale → Profitability path

4. Find your red flags early:

  • LTV:CAC ratio
  • Retention/churn metrics
  • Burn rate and runway

5. Optimize the right metrics:

  • Focus on 1-2 metrics per quarter
  • A/B test improvements
  • Measure, iterate, repeat

Further Resources

SaaS:

  • SaaS Metrics 2.0 by David Skok
  • Andreessen Horowitz’s 16 Startup Metrics
  • ChartMogul Blog

E-commerce:

  • Shopify’s E-commerce Benchmarks
  • Baymard Institute (UX & conversion research)
  • Retention Science Blog

Marketplaces:

  • Marketplace 100 by a16z
  • Bill Gurley’s marketplace essays
  • Lenny’s Newsletter (marketplace deep dives)

Congratulations! You’ve completed the Business Math Series. You now have the frameworks, formulas, and benchmarks to:

  • Evaluate any business model
  • Calculate the metrics that matter
  • Make data-driven decisions
  • Predict success before scaling

Remember: Math doesn’t lie. Measure what matters. Scale what works. 📊


Full Series: Business Math Series