Two companies. Same revenue. $10M ARR.
Company A - Traditional SaaS:
- 100 customers paying $100K/year
- Churn: 5% annually
- Growth: 20% YoY
Valuation: $50M (5x revenue)
Company B - SaaS with Expansion:
- 100 customers started at $50K/year
- Churn: 5% annually (same as Company A)
- But… existing customers now paying average $120K
- Net Revenue Retention: 120%
- Growth: 35% YoY
Valuation: $200M (20x revenue)
Same starting point. Same number of customers. Same churn rate.
But Company B worth 4x more.
Why?
Company B understands its industry-specific metrics:
- Expansion MRR
- Net Revenue Retention (NRR)
- Negative churn
- Quick Ratio
Company A only tracks basic metrics:
- Total revenue
- Customer count
- Churn rate
This is why industry context matters.
A 70% gross margin is:
- ✅ Amazing for e-commerce
- ⚠️ Concerning for SaaS
- ❌ Terrible for pure software
A 5% monthly churn is:
- ✅ Excellent for SMB SaaS
- ⚠️ Acceptable for consumer subscription
- ❌ Catastrophic for enterprise SaaS
Let’s learn the metrics that matter most for each business model.
Part 1: Why Industry Context Changes Everything
Same metric, different meaning:
Example: 50% Growth Rate
For a startup (Year 1):
- $0 → $1M = 50% monthly growth
- Verdict: Too slow, not venture-scale
For scale-up (Year 5):
- $20M → $30M = 50% annual growth
- Verdict: Excellent, ready for IPO
For mature company (Year 15):
- $500M → $750M = 50% growth
- Verdict: Extraordinary, market-dominating
Example: 30% Gross Margin
| Industry | 30% Gross Margin | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| SaaS | 30% | ❌ Broken (should be 70-90%) |
| E-commerce | 30% | ✅ Solid (typical range) |
| Marketplace | 30% | ⚠️ Depends on take rate model |
| Retail | 30% | ✅ Good (typical 20-40%) |
This is why you need industry-specific benchmarks.
Part 2: SaaS Metrics Bible
SaaS has the most developed metric frameworks because:
- Predictable recurring revenue
- Clear cohort behavior
- Expansion opportunities
- Long-term value creation
1. Quick Ratio - The Health Score
Quick Ratio measures how fast you’re growing vs. churning.
$$ \text{Quick Ratio} = \frac{\text{New MRR} + \text{Expansion MRR}}{\text{Churned MRR} + \text{Contraction MRR}} $$
Example:
Month: January
- New MRR: $50K (new customers)
- Expansion MRR: $20K (upsells, add-ons)
- Churned MRR: $15K (lost customers)
- Contraction MRR: $5K (downgrades)
$$ \text{Quick Ratio} = \frac{$50K + $20K}{$15K + $5K} = \frac{$70K}{$20K} = 3.5 $$
What it means:
- For every $1 you lose, you gain $3.50
- Rule of Thumb:
- < 1: Losing more than gaining (crisis)
- 1-2: Growing but struggling
- 2-4: Healthy growth
- > 4: Excellent growth efficiency
Why Quick Ratio > Traditional Growth Rate:
Traditional view:
- Company A: +$50K MRR (10% growth)
- Company B: +$50K MRR (10% growth)
- Look the same!
Quick Ratio view:
Company A:
- New: $40K, Expansion: $20K, Churn: $10K
- Quick Ratio: 6.0 (healthy!)
Company B:
- New: $55K, Expansion: $5K, Churn: $10K
- Quick Ratio: 6.0 (but relying on new customers only)
Company C:
- New: $80K, Expansion: $5K, Churn: $35K
- Quick Ratio: 2.4 (churn problem!)
All have same net growth, but health is very different.
❌ Crisis"] --> B["Quick Ratio 1-2
⚠️ Struggling"] B --> C["Quick Ratio 2-4
✅ Healthy"] C --> D["Quick Ratio > 4
🚀 Excellent"] style A fill:#ff6b6b style B fill:#ffd43b style C fill:#51cf66 style D fill:#4dabf7
2. Net Revenue Retention (NRR) - The Gold Standard
NRR measures revenue retention + expansion from existing customers.
$$ \text{NRR} = \frac{\text{Starting MRR} + \text{Expansion MRR} - \text{Churned MRR} - \text{Contraction MRR}}{\text{Starting MRR}} \times 100% $$
Example: January Cohort
Starting MRR (January): $100,000
By next January (12 months later):
- Expansion MRR: $20,000 (upsells)
- Churned MRR: $10,000 (lost customers)
- Contraction MRR: $5,000 (downgrades)
$$ \text{NRR} = \frac{$100K + $20K - $10K - $5K}{$100K} \times 100% = 105% $$
Interpretation:
- 100% NRR: Breaking even (churn = expansion)
- > 100% NRR: Negative churn (expansion > churn) 🚀
- < 100% NRR: Losing revenue from cohort
Benchmarks by company type:
| Company Type | Typical NRR | Great NRR |
|---|---|---|
| Enterprise SaaS | 110-120% | > 120% |
| Mid-market SaaS | 100-110% | > 115% |
| SMB SaaS | 80-90% | > 100% |
Real examples:
- Snowflake: 158% NRR (incredible!)
- Datadog: 130% NRR
- Slack (at IPO): 143% NRR
- Zoom: 140% NRR
Why NRR > 100% is magical:
Scenario: 110% NRR, 0% new customer growth
| Year | Starting MRR | NRR | Ending MRR | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $1M | 110% | $1.1M | +10% |
| 2 | $1.1M | 110% | $1.21M | +10% |
| 3 | $1.21M | 110% | $1.33M | +10% |
| 4 | $1.33M | 110% | $1.46M | +10% |
| 5 | $1.46M | 110% | $1.61M | +10% |
You grow 10% annually without acquiring a single new customer!
This is why investors love high NRR:
- Proves product value (customers expand)
- Reduces dependency on new sales
- Compounds over time
- More predictable than new bookings
3. Gross Revenue Retention (GRR) - The Floor
GRR measures retention WITHOUT expansion.
$$ \text{GRR} = \frac{\text{Starting MRR} - \text{Churned MRR} - \text{Contraction MRR}}{\text{Starting MRR}} \times 100% $$
Using same example:
$$ \text{GRR} = \frac{$100K - $10K - $5K}{$100K} \times 100% = 85% $$
Why GRR matters:
- Shows product stickiness independent of upsells
- Can’t hide churn behind expansion
- Floor for retention
Benchmarks:
| Customer Segment | Target GRR |
|---|---|
| Enterprise | > 95% |
| Mid-market | > 90% |
| SMB | > 80% |
Relationship: NRR vs GRR
$$ \text{NRR} = \text{GRR} + \text{Expansion Rate} $$
Example scenarios:
| Scenario | GRR | Expansion | NRR | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 95% | 15% | 110% | ✅ Excellent |
| B | 75% | 35% | 110% | ⚠️ High churn masked |
| C | 90% | 5% | 95% | ⚠️ Low expansion |
| D | 98% | 20% | 118% | 🚀 Amazing |
Scenario B is a red flag:
- Same NRR as Scenario A
- But losing 25% of customers annually
- Heavy reliance on upsells to existing customers
- What happens when expansion saturates?
4. Logo Retention vs Revenue Retention
Two different retention measures:
Logo Retention: $$ \text{Logo Retention} = \frac{\text{Customers at End}}{\text{Customers at Start}} \times 100% $$
Revenue Retention (GRR): $$ \text{Revenue Retention} = \frac{\text{Revenue Retained}}{\text{Starting Revenue}} \times 100% $$
These can diverge:
Example: Enterprise SaaS
- Start: 100 customers, $1M MRR
- End: 90 customers, $1.1M MRR
- Logo retention: 90%
- Revenue retention: 110%
Why?
- Lost 10 small customers ($50K total)
- Remaining 90 expanded by $150K
- Result: Revenue up despite losing customers
When to focus on each:
| Metric | When to Prioritize |
|---|---|
| Logo Retention | SMB, volume play, network effects |
| Revenue Retention | Enterprise, high ACV, expansion model |
5. Expansion MRR - The Growth Engine
Types of expansion:
- Upsell: Higher tier plan
- Cross-sell: Additional products
- Seats: More users
- Usage: Consumption-based growth
Expansion MRR calculation:
$$ \text{Expansion MRR %} = \frac{\text{Expansion MRR}}{\text{Starting MRR}} \times 100% $$
Example breakdown:
| Month | Starting MRR | Expansion | Expansion % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | $1M | $50K | 5% |
| Feb | $1.05M | $60K | 5.7% |
| Mar | $1.11M | $70K | 6.3% |
Target: 2-3% monthly expansion MRR
Real company examples:
| Company | Primary Expansion Driver |
|---|---|
| Slack | Seats (team growth) |
| Snowflake | Usage (data warehouse compute) |
| Zendesk | Cross-sell (multiple products) |
| Datadog | Usage + seats (infrastructure monitoring) |
6. CAC Payback Period - Speed to Profitability
$$ \text{CAC Payback (months)} = \frac{\text{CAC}}{\text{Monthly Revenue per Customer} \times \text{Gross Margin %}} $$
Example:
- CAC: $12,000
- Monthly ARPU: $1,000
- Gross margin: 80%
$$ \text{Payback} = \frac{$12,000}{$1,000 \times 0.80} = 15 \text{ months} $$
Benchmarks:
| CAC Payback | Assessment |
|---|---|
| < 12 months | Excellent (efficient growth) |
| 12-18 months | Good (acceptable) |
| 18-24 months | Fair (needs improvement) |
| > 24 months | Poor (unsustainable) |
Why it matters:
- Cash flow impact
- Risk exposure (customers can churn before payback)
- Growth efficiency
7. Magic Number - Sales Efficiency
Magic Number measures sales & marketing efficiency.
$$ \text{Magic Number} = \frac{\text{Net New ARR (current quarter)} \times 4}{\text{Sales & Marketing Spend (previous quarter)}} $$
Example:
- Q1 S&M spend: $500K
- Q2 net new ARR: $150K
$$ \text{Magic Number} = \frac{$150K \times 4}{$500K} = 1.2 $$
Interpretation:
- < 0.5: Inefficient, slow growth
- 0.5 - 0.75: Reasonable, optimize further
- 0.75 - 1.0: Good efficiency
- > 1.0: Excellent, scale aggressively
Decision framework:
| Magic Number | Action |
|---|---|
| < 0.5 | Pause growth, fix unit economics |
| 0.5 - 0.75 | Cautious growth, improve conversion |
| 0.75 - 1.0 | Scale with confidence |
| > 1.0 | Raise capital, grow fast |
Part 3: E-commerce Playbook
E-commerce metrics focus on:
- Conversion efficiency
- Transaction economics
- Repeat behavior
- Customer lifetime patterns
1. Conversion Funnel - Every Step Matters
Typical e-commerce funnel:
100,000 (100%)"] --> B["Product Page Views
40,000 (40%)"] B --> C["Add to Cart
8,000 (8%)"] C --> D["Checkout Started
4,000 (4%)"] D --> E["Order Completed
2,400 (2.4%)"] F["Abandonment Points:"] --> G["60% leave before product"] F --> H["20% abandon in cart"] F --> I["40% abandon at checkout"] style A fill:#4dabf7 style E fill:#51cf66 style G fill:#ff6b6b style H fill:#ff6b6b style I fill:#ff6b6b
Calculate conversion at each stage:
$$ \text{Conversion Rate} = \frac{\text{Orders Completed}}{\text{Website Visitors}} \times 100% $$
$$ \text{Conversion} = \frac{2,400}{100,000} \times 100% = 2.4% $$
Benchmarks by industry:
| Industry | Average Conversion Rate |
|---|---|
| Fashion | 2-3% |
| Electronics | 2-3% |
| Food & Beverage | 3-5% |
| Luxury | 1-2% |
| Health & Beauty | 3-4% |
Micro-conversions matter:
| Step | Formula | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|
| Product View Rate | Views / Visits | 30-50% |
| Add-to-Cart Rate | Adds / Views | 8-12% |
| Checkout Rate | Checkouts / Adds | 40-50% |
| Purchase Rate | Orders / Checkouts | 60-70% |
2. Average Order Value (AOV) - Revenue per Transaction
$$ \text{AOV} = \frac{\text{Total Revenue}}{\text{Number of Orders}} $$
Example:
- Revenue: $500,000
- Orders: 10,000
$$ \text{AOV} = \frac{$500,000}{10,000} = $50 $$
Ways to increase AOV:
| Tactic | Typical Lift |
|---|---|
| Product bundling | 10-20% |
| Free shipping threshold | 15-25% |
| Cross-sell at checkout | 5-10% |
| Volume discounts | 8-15% |
| Upsell premium options | 10-20% |
AOV by channel:
| Channel | Typical AOV Difference |
|---|---|
| Mobile | -20 to -30% vs desktop |
| +15 to +25% vs organic | |
| Paid search | -10 to +10% (varies) |
| Referral | +20 to +40% |
3. Cart Abandonment Rate - The Revenue Leak
$$ \text{Cart Abandonment Rate} = \frac{\text{Carts Created} - \text{Orders Completed}}{\text{Carts Created}} \times 100% $$
Example:
- Carts created: 10,000
- Orders completed: 3,000
$$ \text{Abandonment} = \frac{10,000 - 3,000}{10,000} \times 100% = 70% $$
Average cart abandonment: 70% across all industries
Top reasons for abandonment:
| Reason | % of Abandoners |
|---|---|
| Unexpected shipping costs | 55% |
| Need to create account | 34% |
| Complicated checkout | 26% |
| Lack of trust/security | 19% |
| Slow delivery | 18% |
| No guest checkout | 16% |
Recovery tactics:
| Tactic | Typical Recovery Rate |
|---|---|
| Abandoned cart email | 10-15% |
| Exit-intent popup | 2-5% |
| Retargeting ads | 5-10% |
| SMS reminder | 8-12% |
ROI of cart abandonment campaigns:
Example:
- 10,000 abandoned carts/month
- AOV: $100
- Potential revenue: $1M
- Recovery rate: 12% (with email campaign)
- Recovered revenue: $120K/month
- Campaign cost: $5K/month
- Net gain: $115K/month
4. Customer Repeat Rate - Lifetime Value Indicator
$$ \text{Repeat Purchase Rate} = \frac{\text{Customers with 2+ Orders}}{\text{Total Customers}} \times 100% $$
Example:
- Total customers: 50,000
- Customers with 2+ orders: 15,000
$$ \text{Repeat Rate} = \frac{15,000}{50,000} \times 100% = 30% $$
Benchmarks by business type:
| Business Type | Typical Repeat Rate |
|---|---|
| Consumables | 40-60% |
| Fashion | 20-35% |
| Electronics | 10-20% |
| Furniture | 5-15% |
| Beauty/Personal Care | 35-55% |
Cohort repeat purchase analysis:
| Month | First Purchase | 2nd Purchase | 3rd Purchase | 4th+ Purchase |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | - | - | - |
| 1 | - | 25% | - | - |
| 3 | - | 35% | 15% | - |
| 6 | - | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| 12 | - | 45% | 25% | 15% |
Tracking by cohort reveals:
- Repeat purchase velocity
- Long-term retention patterns
- When to intervene with campaigns
5. Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) by Channel
E-commerce CAC varies dramatically by channel:
| Channel | Typical CAC | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Organic search | $20-50 | Long-term investment |
| Paid search | $30-80 | Intent-based, high conversion |
| Social ads (Facebook/Instagram) | $40-100 | Broad reach, testing needed |
| TikTok ads | $25-60 | Younger demographic |
| Influencer marketing | $50-150 | Varies by influencer tier |
| Email (reactivation) | $5-15 | Existing audience |
| Referral | $15-40 | High quality, loyal |
| Affiliate | $30-70 | Performance-based |
Blended CAC calculation:
$$ \text{Blended CAC} = \frac{\text{Total Marketing Spend}}{\text{New Customers Acquired}} $$
Example:
- Google Ads: $20K → 400 customers (CAC: $50)
- Facebook: $15K → 250 customers (CAC: $60)
- Email: $2K → 200 customers (CAC: $10)
- Total: $37K → 850 customers
$$ \text{Blended CAC} = \frac{$37,000}{850} = $43.50 $$
6. LTV:CAC Ratio for E-commerce
Target LTV:CAC ratio: 3:1 minimum
Example:
- CAC: $50
- AOV: $80
- Gross margin: 40% ($32 profit per order)
- Repeat purchase rate: 30%
- Average customer orders: 2.5
$$ \text{LTV} = $32 \times 2.5 = $80 $$
$$ \text{LTV:CAC} = \frac{$80}{$50} = 1.6:1 $$
Verdict: Below 3:1, need improvement
Options to improve:
- Reduce CAC (better targeting)
- Increase AOV (bundling, upsells)
- Increase repeat rate (loyalty program)
- Improve margins (pricing, COGS)
Part 4: Marketplace Math
Marketplaces are unique:
- Two-sided (supply AND demand)
- Network effects
- Take rate business model
- Liquidity is critical
1. GMV vs Revenue - Know the Difference
GMV = Gross Merchandise Value
- Total value of transactions
- Before taking platform fee
Revenue = Platform’s cut
- Take rate × GMV
- Actual money to the platform
$$ \text{Revenue} = \text{GMV} \times \text{Take Rate} $$
Example: Uber ride
- Ride fare (GMV): $20
- Uber take rate: 25%
- Uber revenue: $5
- Driver payout: $15
Why GMV can be misleading:
Company A:
- GMV: $100M
- Take rate: 5%
- Revenue: $5M
Company B:
- GMV: $50M
- Take rate: 20%
- Revenue: $10M
Company B has half the GMV but double the revenue!
2. Take Rate - The Platform’s Cut
$$ \text{Take Rate} = \frac{\text{Platform Revenue}}{\text{GMV}} \times 100% $$
Benchmarks by marketplace type:
| Marketplace | Take Rate | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| eBay | 10-12% | + listing fees |
| Etsy | 6.5% | + payment processing |
| Uber | 20-25% | Varies by market |
| Airbnb | 14-16% | Combined host + guest |
| Amazon (3P) | 15% | + fulfillment fees |
| DoorDash | 15-30% | Varies by restaurant deal |
| Upwork | 5-20% | Sliding scale |
| StockX | 9.5-12% | + authentication |
What influences take rate:
| Factor | Impact on Take Rate |
|---|---|
| High competition | Lower take rate |
| Value-added services | Higher take rate |
| Network effects strong | Higher take rate |
| Commoditized supply | Lower take rate |
| High trust needed | Higher take rate (for safety/verification) |
Take rate optimization:
Initial: Low take rate to grow supply/demand
Growth: Gradually increase as network effects strengthen
Scale: Optimize take rate per segment
Example: Uber
- Launch: 5% take rate (grow driver supply)
- Growth: 15% take rate (balance supply/demand)
- Scale: 20-25% (optimize by market, surge pricing)
3. Liquidity - The Marketplace Health Metric
Liquidity = Matching efficiency
$$ \text{Liquidity} = \frac{\text{Listings that Transacted in X Days}}{\text{Total Active Listings}} \times 100% $$
Example: Rental marketplace
- Active listings: 10,000 properties
- Properties rented in 30 days: 7,000
$$ \text{30-Day Liquidity} = \frac{7,000}{10,000} \times 100% = 70% $$
Benchmarks:
| Marketplace Type | Good Liquidity |
|---|---|
| Rideshare | > 90% (matched in < 5 min) |
| Food delivery | > 85% (matched in < 10 min) |
| Rental (Airbnb) | > 60% (booked in 30 days) |
| E-commerce (eBay) | > 40% (sold in 60 days) |
| Services (Upwork) | > 50% (hired in 30 days) |
Why liquidity matters:
High liquidity:
- Buyers find what they want fast
- Sellers transact quickly
- Network effects strengthen
- Retention improves
Low liquidity:
- Buyers leave empty-handed
- Sellers abandon platform
- Negative spiral begins
4. Supply/Demand Ratio - The Balance
$$ \text{S/D Ratio} = \frac{\text{Active Supply Units}}{\text{Active Demand Units}} $$
Example: Rideshare in a city
- Active drivers: 1,000
- Riders requesting: 800
$$ \text{S/D Ratio} = \frac{1,000}{800} = 1.25 $$
Interpretation:
- < 1: Supply constrained (prices high, wait times low)
- = 1: Balanced
- > 1: Demand constrained (prices low, wait times high)
Optimal S/D ratio varies:
| Marketplace | Optimal S/D Ratio | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Rideshare | 1.1 - 1.3 | Slight oversupply = low wait times |
| Food delivery | 1.2 - 1.5 | Extra couriers = fast delivery |
| Rental (Airbnb) | 2 - 4 | More choice for buyers |
| Freelance | 3 - 5 | Competition keeps prices fair |
Dynamic balancing:
- Surge pricing (Uber): Increase demand-side price when S/D < 1
- Incentives (DoorDash): Bonus for drivers when S/D < 1
- Promotions (Airbnb): Discounts to stimulate demand when S/D > 4
5. Network Density - Geographic Liquidity
For location-based marketplaces:
$$ \text{Network Density} = \frac{\text{Active Supply Units}}{\text{Geographic Area}} $$
Example: Rideshare city zones
| Zone | Drivers | Area (sq mi) | Density | Liquidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downtown | 200 | 5 | 40/sq mi | ✅ High |
| Suburbs | 50 | 20 | 2.5/sq mi | ⚠️ Medium |
| Rural | 5 | 50 | 0.1/sq mi | ❌ Low |
Why density matters:
- Affects wait times
- Determines service quality
- Influences unit economics
Uber’s strategy:
- Launch in dense downtown (easiest to achieve liquidity)
- Expand to suburbs (maintain quality)
- Skip rural areas (can’t achieve density)
6. Frequency and Engagement
$$ \text{Monthly Active Rate} = \frac{\text{Users Transacting This Month}}{\text{Total Users}} \times 100% $$
Benchmarks:
| Marketplace Type | Monthly Active Rate |
|---|---|
| Food delivery | 40-60% |
| Rideshare | 30-50% |
| E-commerce | 15-30% |
| Travel/Rental | 5-15% |
| Freelance | 20-40% |
High-frequency marketplaces (food delivery) have:
- Lower CAC payback (faster usage)
- Stronger habits
- Better data for recommendations
- More upsell opportunities
Low-frequency marketplaces (travel) have:
- Longer CAC payback
- Need great retention tactics
- Rely on occasional high-value transactions
Part 5: Benchmarking Tables - What “Good” Looks Like
SaaS Benchmarks by Stage
| Metric | Early Stage | Growth Stage | Scale Stage |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAC Payback | < 18 months | < 12 months | < 10 months |
| Magic Number | > 0.5 | > 0.75 | > 1.0 |
| NRR | > 90% | > 100% | > 110% |
| GRR | > 80% | > 85% | > 90% |
| Quick Ratio | > 2 | > 3 | > 4 |
| LTV:CAC | > 2:1 | > 3:1 | > 4:1 |
| Gross Margin | > 60% | > 70% | > 75% |
E-commerce Benchmarks by Business Model
| Metric | Consumables | Fashion | Electronics | Luxury |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conversion Rate | 3-5% | 2-3% | 2-3% | 1-2% |
| AOV | $50-100 | $80-150 | $200-500 | $500+ |
| Repeat Rate | 40-60% | 20-35% | 10-20% | 15-30% |
| Gross Margin | 40-60% | 45-65% | 20-35% | 50-70% |
| LTV:CAC | > 3:1 | > 2.5:1 | > 2:1 | > 3:1 |
Marketplace Benchmarks by Type
| Metric | Rideshare | Food Delivery | Rental | Services |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Take Rate | 20-25% | 15-30% | 14-16% | 10-20% |
| Liquidity | > 90% | > 85% | > 60% | > 50% |
| S/D Ratio | 1.1-1.3 | 1.2-1.5 | 2-4 | 3-5 |
| Monthly Active | 30-50% | 40-60% | 5-15% | 20-40% |
Part 6: Your Metrics Dashboard by Stage
Pre-Revenue (Building Product)
Focus on:
- ✅ User engagement (DAU/MAU)
- ✅ Activation rate (% completing key action)
- ✅ Feature usage depth
- ❌ Don’t worry about: Revenue metrics yet
Example dashboard:
- Signups per week: 500
- Activation rate: 40%
- Weekly active users: 200
- Feature X usage: 60% of active users
Early Revenue ($0-1M ARR)
Focus on:
- ✅ Unit economics (does one customer/transaction make money?)
- ✅ CAC per channel
- ✅ Basic LTV calculation
- ✅ Gross margin
- ❌ Don’t worry about: Efficiency ratios yet
Example dashboard:
- Monthly revenue: $50K
- Customers: 25
- ARPU: $2K
- CAC: $3K (6-month payback)
- Gross margin: 70%
Growth Stage ($1-10M ARR)
Focus on:
- ✅ CAC payback period
- ✅ LTV:CAC ratio
- ✅ Retention cohorts
- ✅ Quick Ratio (SaaS) or Repeat Rate (E-commerce)
- ✅ Burn rate and runway
Example dashboard:
- ARR: $5M
- Net new ARR: $150K/month
- CAC payback: 14 months
- LTV:CAC: 3.2:1
- NRR: 105%
- Burn: $200K/month
- Runway: 18 months
Scale Stage ($10M+ ARR)
Focus on:
- ✅ Efficiency metrics (Magic Number, Rule of 40)
- ✅ Expansion revenue
- ✅ Sales productivity
- ✅ ROIC
- ✅ Path to profitability
Example dashboard:
- ARR: $50M
- Growth rate: 40%
- Operating margin: 0% (breakeven)
- Rule of 40: 40% ✓
- NRR: 115%
- CAC payback: 10 months
- Magic Number: 1.1
Part 7: Red Flags Checklist
🚨 Universal Red Flags (Any Business)
| Red Flag | What It Means | Action |
|---|---|---|
| LTV < CAC | Losing money on every customer | Fix unit economics or pivot |
| Negative gross margin | Core product unprofitable | Increase prices or reduce COGS |
| Rising CAC, flat LTV | Acquisition getting harder | Product-market fit issue |
| Burn > revenue | Spending more than earning | Cut costs or raise capital |
| Runway < 6 months | Running out of cash | Emergency fundraise or cut to profitability |
🚨 SaaS Red Flags
| Red Flag | What It Means |
|---|---|
| Quick Ratio < 1 | Losing more than gaining (death spiral) |
| NRR < 90% | Customers shrinking rapidly |
| GRR < 75% | Churn crisis |
| CAC payback > 24 months | Too long to break even |
| Magic Number < 0.5 | Sales/marketing inefficient |
🚨 E-commerce Red Flags
| Red Flag | What It Means |
|---|---|
| Repeat rate < 10% | One-time purchase business |
| Conversion rate < 1% | Website/funnel broken |
| Cart abandonment > 80% | Checkout issues |
| CAC > 50% of AOV | Unprofitable growth |
🚨 Marketplace Red Flags
| Red Flag | What It Means |
|---|---|
| Liquidity < 30% | Marketplace not working |
| S/D ratio < 0.5 or > 10 | Severe imbalance |
| Take rate < 5% | Not enough revenue per transaction |
| Active rate < 10% | Users not coming back |
Part 8: Key Takeaways - Industry-Specific Wisdom
For SaaS:
- NRR > 100% is the holy grail — grow without new customers
- Quick Ratio > 4 = healthy growth
- CAC payback < 12 months for efficient scaling
- GRR shows true retention — expansion can mask churn
- Magic Number > 0.75 before scaling sales
For E-commerce:
- Repeat rate = everything — one-time buyers are expensive
- Conversion rate improvements compound forever
- AOV increases are fastest path to profitability
- LTV:CAC > 3:1 minimum for sustainable growth
- Cart abandonment recovery is low-hanging fruit
For Marketplaces:
- GMV ≠ Revenue — take rate matters more
- Liquidity is life — match supply and demand fast
- Balance S/D ratio in every geographic market
- Network effects take time — expect J-curve
- Frequency drives value — high-frequency marketplaces have better economics
Universal Truth:
Context matters more than absolute numbers.
- Know your industry benchmarks
- Track the right metrics for your stage
- Compare to similar businesses, not all businesses
Series Navigation
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Full Series: Business Math Series
Your Action Plan
1. Identify your business model:
- SaaS → Focus on retention, expansion, efficiency
- E-commerce → Focus on conversion, AOV, repeat rate
- Marketplace → Focus on liquidity, take rate, balance
2. Set up your dashboard:
- 5-7 core metrics for your industry
- Track weekly (not monthly)
- Cohort-based when possible
3. Benchmark against your stage:
- Early revenue → Unit economics
- Growth → Efficiency ratios
- Scale → Profitability path
4. Find your red flags early:
- LTV:CAC ratio
- Retention/churn metrics
- Burn rate and runway
5. Optimize the right metrics:
- Focus on 1-2 metrics per quarter
- A/B test improvements
- Measure, iterate, repeat
Further Resources
SaaS:
- SaaS Metrics 2.0 by David Skok
- Andreessen Horowitz’s 16 Startup Metrics
- ChartMogul Blog
E-commerce:
- Shopify’s E-commerce Benchmarks
- Baymard Institute (UX & conversion research)
- Retention Science Blog
Marketplaces:
- Marketplace 100 by a16z
- Bill Gurley’s marketplace essays
- Lenny’s Newsletter (marketplace deep dives)
Congratulations! You’ve completed the Business Math Series. You now have the frameworks, formulas, and benchmarks to:
- Evaluate any business model
- Calculate the metrics that matter
- Make data-driven decisions
- Predict success before scaling
Remember: Math doesn’t lie. Measure what matters. Scale what works. 📊
Full Series: Business Math Series