Decision-Making

Here’s one of the most unsettling discoveries in mathematics: perfectly rational players, each acting in their own self-interest, can all end up worse off than if they had acted irrationally. This isn’t a flaw in game theory-it’s a feature of reality that game theory reveals. This paradox explains traffic jams, arms races, overfishing, climate change negotiations, and why businesses sometimes engage in destructive price wars. Understanding it will change how you see human cooperation (and its failures). ...

In 1847, Dr. Ignaz Semmelweis made a horrifying discovery at Vienna General Hospital: doctors were killing their patients. The maternity ward had a death rate of 10-35% from “childbed fever.” But here’s what was strange-the ward staffed by midwives had a death rate of only 4%. Mothers were literally begging not to be admitted to the doctors’ ward. Some women chose to give birth in the street rather than risk dying in the hospital. ...

It’s a hot summer afternoon in Coleman, Texas. A family is relaxing on the porch, playing dominoes and enjoying the fan. The father-in-law says, “Let’s drive to Abilene for dinner.” Nobody really wants to go. It’s 53 miles away in 104°F heat, in a car without air conditioning. But nobody speaks up. The wife says, “Sounds good to me.” The husband, not wanting to disappoint, says, “Sure, I’m in.” The mother-in-law agrees. ...

In the early 1900s, British colonial India faced a venomous problem: too many cobras slithering through the streets of Delhi. The British government, determined to reduce the cobra population, came up with what seemed like a brilliant solution-offer a bounty for every dead cobra brought in. Initially, the program worked. People killed cobras and collected their rewards. The cobra population appeared to decline. Success! Or so they thought. The Twist Enterprising locals quickly realized they could breed cobras specifically to kill them and collect the bounty. Why hunt dangerous snakes in the wild when you could farm them at home? ...

On January 28, 1986, millions of Americans watched the Space Shuttle Challenger lift off from Kennedy Space Center. Among the seven crew members was Christa McAuliffe, a high school teacher chosen to be the first civilian in space. Students across America watched live from their classrooms, excited to see their teacher reach the stars. Seventy-three seconds into the flight, Challenger exploded. All seven crew members died instantly. The nation was devastated. ...

You’re in a meeting at Apple. The agenda has 12 items. Next to each item is a name. iOS notification improvements: Sarah Chen Battery optimization: Marcus Rodriguez App Store review process: Jennifer Wu That name isn’t the person who does all the work. It’s the person who is directly responsible for that outcome. One person. Completely accountable. Not a committee. Not a team. One person. If it succeeds, they get credit. If it fails, it’s on them. ...

I once spent $299 on a course I never watched. Not because I needed it. Not because I researched it. Not because it fit my learning style. I bought it because I saw “47,329 students enrolled.” My brain did the math: “47,000 people can’t be wrong. This must be good.” Spoiler: It wasn’t good. For me, anyway. The content was basic, the pacing was wrong, and I could’ve learned the same material for free. ...

I once spent three weeks building a custom CSS framework. It had exactly the features I wanted. Perfect naming conventions. Elegant utility classes. Beautiful documentation. I showed it to my team. They said, “Why not just use Tailwind?” My response? “Because mine is better.” Was it actually better? No. Objectively, Tailwind had: More features Better documentation Larger community More battle-testing Active maintenance But I couldn’t see that. All I could see was MY framework, MY design decisions, MY time invested. ...

I once turned down a $40,000 freelance contract because I was afraid of losing my $80,000 salary. The math was simple: take the contract, it would take 3 months, that’s $160k annualized. Way better than my salary. But my brain didn’t see “$160k potential.” It saw “giving up the guaranteed $80k.” The fear of losing my steady paycheck was stronger than the excitement of potentially making more. I said no. The person who took the gig finished it in 2 months, got referred to three more clients, and now runs a six-figure freelance business. ...

We were going to launch the feature on Tuesday. Everyone on the team knew it wasn’t ready. The code was buggy. The UX was confusing. We hadn’t tested the edge cases. One of our engineers literally said in standup, “I’m not sure this is going to work well,” but immediately followed it with, “but I guess everyone else thinks it’s fine.” The PM wanted to hit the deadline. The CEO was excited about the demo. The team had momentum. So we all nodded along. ...